Can Will and Kate save Maverick?
Only if they will join Minehead ;)
Prequels, Reboots and Revivals1 are dumb. There. Someone had to say it and stop the Hollywood madness. “Let me be clear” with some examples.
Prequels - Star Wars - just pick any one of them set to be before “A New Hope”
Reboots - Spider-man, Batman, Superman - any “man”
Revivals - Top Gun 2 - Maverick vs. Maverick (formerly known as “himself”)
Why are we doing this? Why do we think that rehashing popular 80s movies will be a hit to anyone else other than people from the 80s, like myself? One WSJ article said it best - “Even young teens who loved the first ‘Top Gun’ are pushing 50 now - a demographic that has proven somewhat reluctant to return to movie theaters.”
I am willing to be wrong about this one because I want the 80s to live on in new generations. It is possible for “Top Gun” to be successful in the domestic market with their “success” range of $280 million to $395 million in total domestic box office revenues. But their goal is international and here is why I am predicting movie doom for my favorite scientologist - the market in China has changed!
Why China’s market matters more than the US
China now has the largest movie market AND China has a quota of only 34 “revenue-share” foreign films per year. That quota seems to go down each year. Therefore, the major film production companies try very hard to make it into that market. Who would not want to try and earn billions of dollars?
So, what do you have to do to get into that market?
Top Gun - Take a patch off the original jacket from the 1986 movie showing Taiwan as a separate country. Done!
That doesn’t seem like a big request. Even Stephen Colbert understands the need to pander a little in order to get into the China market when he said back in 2016 -
it is only natural for American movie makers to try to please the cultural gate-keepers of the Chinese government. They’ve been doing it for years. In the disaster movie, “2012,” humanity is saved because the Chinese government had the foresight to build life-saving arcs. In “Gravity,” Sandra Bullock survives by getting herself to the Chinese Space Station. That movie did so well in China, she went back and re-shot “The Blindside” with an underprivileged table tennis player.
In 2021, China ended “as the world’s largest theatrical film market.”
China total movie revenue - $9.2 billion
US total movie revenue - $4.5 billion (lockdowns did factor in this year’s decline)
Reasonable capitalism: It is totally understandable for Hollywood to make terrible movies just so they can get into the China market. There is nothing wrong with the US consumer *not* being the primary concern of an industry. This same thing is happening in other industries.
US Pro sports - NBA owners, mum on China relationship, have more than $10 billion invested there
US Universities - Harvard Leads U.S. Colleges that Received $1 Billion from China
US Companies - Apple, Nike, Texas Instruments allowed big exposure in China
Capitalism meets Communism: I give this information not as a poor reflection on China. China is doing what every emerging and growing nation does - try to gain influence. I write this more as a poor reflection on certain industries in the US because of their constant stoking of the toxic culture wars in the US that serves only to divide Americans. A recent “hacking” of a Chinese government agency shows pictures of the tragic concentration camps of the ethnic Uyghurs. We have known about these camps for at least 5 years.
With this backdrop of genocide towards a religious ethnic minority, the following groups use their influence in the US to propel the culture wars -
NBA - took all-star game out of North Carolina in 2017 in protest over state “bathroom bill” but says nothing about the Uyghurs
Nike - removes “Betsy Flag” from sneakers special edition because Colin Kaepernick said it was a symbol of hate group but says nothing about Uyghurs being forced labor to make Nike shoes
There are many examples with Hollywood doing similar things. The overall point is that these industries have no problem pushing their values on the consumer when the consumer is no longer their main customer. It seems that Americans are no longer the main customer for certain American industries.
Back to the Movies…
Hollywood’s consumer it cares about is the China market, but Hollywood’s main customer is the CCP or the Chinese “cultural gatekeepers”. I will give 2 main reasons why this has become a problem. Both reasons come from a book by Erich Schwartzel - Red Carpet: Hollywood, China, and the Global Battle for Cultural Supremacy.
#1 - I miss good movies.
Even more disturbing than the movies changing were the ones not getting made at all, for fear of angering Chinese officials. Hollywood became a commercial arm for China’s new ambition, and piece by piece, China’s interest in American film industry revealed itself to be a complement to its political ascendance, one that is rewriting the global order of the new century.
Yes, it is subjective to believe the movies out right now are of poor and almost incoherent quality. However, poor box office revenues also support the idea that Hollywood lacks originality and creativity. Ironically, this goes to the point I wrote earlier about the China market changing.
One reason why Chinese audiences are losing interest in Hollywood movies - “Hollywood has been producing fewer original stories in recent years as the industrialization of Hollywood has caused it to focus more on movie franchises, comic book adaptations and visual effects blockbusters”.
That quote is from a Chinese film critic so keep that in mind. I do think he is partially right, but it cannot be underestimated how censorship kills a creative environment that allows for innovating ideas. Censorship promotes fear and fear drives ideas underground. Maybe George Lucas can use that for Star Wars -10: Fear is the New Hope?
#2 - Addicted to China money
It was immediately clear that Chinese leaders had a plan larger than just box-office grosses. China’s economic leverage had quickly translated into political sway, most often in the censorship practiced by Beijing bureaucrats who amassed unprecedented power in executive suites.
China understands that money is like drugs to most people and industries. If you can get them hooked, they will do whatever you say in order to get more. One of the best examples is the silence by other companies about the genocide of the Uyghurs. If someone was to ask, would you have bought cotton by a slave owner in the 1850s? If their answer is “no”, would they buy Nike shoes after knowing that slaves are making them?
Nike, Apple, the NBA, Hollywood… they are not fearful for their lives as they live in the US. They worry about what many other Americans today are worried about as well - making a living and supporting their families. One could argue that those companies are making more than enough to support their families. I would say that the underlying feeling and principle is the same - fear of losing money for things that matter most to you. I just believe that these companies should not stoke animosity between Americans.
Top Gun China: I still cannot find a release date for the China premiere of Top Gun. After all, Maverick did not take off the 1986 Taiwan patch for nothing, right? Maybe China really has done a number on Maverick because following the commands of an authority figure is very un-Mavericky. Help him … Will and Kate … you are his only hope!
Sincerely,
Me
I am using “revival” to mean a movie that is a sequel, but it comes a decade or more later from the original.
I enjoyed watching Tom Cruise’s revival, sequel, reboot— whatever, with you this weekend!