After watching the results of several state elections on Tuesday night and the GOP primary debate last night, I want to make an analogy to what I see coming for the 2024 election re-match between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
If1… Donald Trump and Joe Biden are the presidential nominees, I think Republicans have a “Cross of Gold” problem and the Democrats have a “Ross Perot” problem.
Republicans’ “Cross of Gold”
The “Cross of Gold” is a reference to the 1896 US Presidential Election with the rise of a young populist Democratic candidate, William Jennings Bryan. The Populist movement was a political movement in the United States that emerged in the late 19th century. The main goals of the Populist movement were to improve conditions for farmers and agrarian workers, and to shift economic and political power back toward the nation’s producing classes. Sound familiar? Marx maybe?
*Side note - it is my opinion that Karl Marx did not create a political theory that people then followed (i.e. Socialism, Communism). Instead, Marx observed the discontent of human nature around working conditions, markets, etc. and gave it a name which can be more powerful because now people can organize around that name. For example, Sir Isaac Newton did not create “the law of gravity”. However, he gave it a name and definition. Once the law of gravity could be defined, we could organize working theories around it in order to make discoveries like how to fly an airplane, etc.
Back to Bryan and the Populist movement.
The central belief of the Populists was “producerism”, which meant that producers (farmers) deserved a fair return. Therefore, one of the things Populists demanded was an increase in the circulating currency to be achieved by the unlimited coinage of silver. This was the Free Silver Movement. Giving this general discontent a “name” allowed people to organize and Populism started to take off.
William Jennings Bryan really captured the hearts and minds of Populists when he gave what came to be known as the “The Cross of Gold” speech in 1896. To a thunderous applause, Bryan ended his speech by saying -
You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.
Bryan won the Democratic presidential nomination and gained fierce supporters that turned into a pseudo-religious revival movement. They even composed a song about it - “Upon a Cross of Gold”. Here is the second verse -
“This legend is our battle cry, Twill guide us night and day;
‘Twill lead our hosts to victory, Our foemen to dismay.
But friends from every rank of life, We welcome to that fold;
‘Where man cannot be crucified Upon a cross of Gold.’
‘Where man cannot be crucified Upon a cross of Gold’.”
All of this to say, Bryan led a populist movement with enthusiastic supporters that came in droves to hear him speak. To the outsider looking in, Bryan appeared to have a commanding support of the American people. In reality, his supporters were very strong, consistent and vocal, but only amounted to about 30-35% of the Democratic voter base.
This amount of support was enough for him to win the Democratic Presidential nominee THREE times - 1896, 1900, 1908. However, Bryan lost all 3 times with a margin that grew each time. You can see from the graphic below that Bryan’s overall percentage stayed the same, but his electoral number really crushed the Democrats with each successive election.
William Jennings Bryan picked up on a real feeling by American farmers (producers). They felt left behind by the progressively changing economy. However, 30-35% staunch supporters is not enough in American politics to win a national election. Bryan’s “Free Silver Movement”, “Cross of Gold” rhetoric and uncompromising ideology made a lot of American voters very nervous which is why Bryan could never win a national race - he scared the moderates.
Analogy to the Republicans today
It is my opinion that Trump is to the Republican party what Bryan was to the Democratic party. Trump has staunch, vocal and pseudo religious supporters that captures 30-35% of the Republican party voters, but scares the moderates.
Some might argue … “but Trump won in 2016 when Bryan never won”. This is true, but I am looking at the Republican party as a whole. Overall, Republicans have suffered losses in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections - local, state and federal. The Republicans did gain the House after the 2022 midterms, but it was a small margin when it should have been a landslide. A key takeaway from those losses should be - the Republicans are in a fervently losing populist movement.
However, the Democrats might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Democrats have a Ross Perot problem
The world would never have known the name - William Jefferson Clinton - if it wasn’t for Ross Perot. I was living in Texas going to high school during the 1992 elections. Therefore, I knew the name, Ross Perot, very well. Perot was from Texas who built a technology empire as the founder of Electronic Data Systems (EDS). He was a well-respected businessman who grew increasingly worried about the country’s debt problem.
The famous line and unkept promise by President George H.W. Bush that pushed Perot over the edge was -
“Read my lips: no new taxes.”
Anyone who listens to Peggy Noonan, the speechwriter for Bush, really does so at their own political peril. How many times has she been wrong??
Anyway…
Perot got in the 1992 race and took a sizable chunk from the Republican voter base - 18.9%. That is enormous! ANY Democrat would have won that year. And yes… even a woman. Poor Hillary Clinton who keeps missing her window of opportunity. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
Perot did not stop there. He wanted Bill Clinton to win re-election so Perot ran as a 3rd party candidate again and took 8.4% in 1996. To give some perspective, the Democrats blame 3rd party Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, for Hillary Clinton’s humiliating loss to Donald Trump. Gary Johnson was a former Republican Governor of New Mexico, and he received only 3.27% of the vote which was the largest since Ross Perot’s 8.4% in 1996.
Democrats were not entirely wrong. In the electoral college, winning the state votes matters more than the overall popular vote. In 2016, Trump was able to win key Democratic strongholds (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) because people in those states are known for voting 3rd parties when there are options. Unfortunately for the forever bridesmaid, there was a 3rd party candidate who siphoned votes away from Hillary giving Trump the win in those states.
In 2020, because of the pandemic, we had an election year that literally gave us a binary choice - either Biden or Trump. Trump lost because it was a binary choice. I could write more on that idea alone, but I do not think my sarcasm plays out well in writing?!
Anyway…
RFK, Jr. is the “Ross Perot” for Democrats
The 2024 election is shaping up to be a “1992 Ross Perot” redux with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
From the recent polling done by the New York Times, RFK, Jr. is polling at a whopping 34% in 6 battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). I do not think RFK, Jr. has ANY chance of winning the US Presidency or even one of these states. His candidacy is only relevant because those battleground states will decide the 2024 election. For Democrats to win, they need for 2024 to be a binary choice (I am still biting my lip as I type that) because populism cannot win if there is a binary choice.
If there is a 3rd party candidate, Democrats need for that candidate to takes votes away from Donald Trump. I have read a couple of articles that try to claim RFK, Jr. is more of a threat to Trump than Biden.
This really is wishful thinking.
If a former Republican turned Libertarian, Gary Johnson was responsible for Hillary Clinton remaining a bridesmaid, then I think it is safe to conclude that a forever liberal, environmental attorney Democrat, RFK, Jr. will be more of a threat to Biden than Trump. But, I am not Peggy Noonan, so…
So who wins?
Not Hillary Clinton.
Sincerely,
Me
My “if” caveat - the polling has given me no reason to believe that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will "*not* be the presidential nominees. However, you never know what will happen when dealing with these candidates who are aging quickly before our eyes. But I take Lloyd’s view from Dumb and Dumber when he was told that he had a one out of a million chance to date Mary and his response was - “So you’re telling me there’s a chance? … yeah!!”