In the Christian world, the “signs of the times” refers to the Second Coming of Jesus Christ (which I am personally looking forward to). In the political world, I am using the “signs of the times” to refer to Democrats nightmare of Republicans gaining back political power. One major sign that Democrats believe Republicans will be in charge of Capitol Hill comes from an op-ed that sent Twitter ablaze on Monday, floating the idea of “amnesty” for those who championed school lockdowns.
“The Left” Parents Amnesty Outrage
Emily Oster is a well-respected professor of economics at Brown University. Her own twitter bio says - “Unapologetically Data-Driven.” She has written many things that has angered both sides of the debate in the last 2 years. However, I have never seen such a quick response to this idea as I have witnessed in the past 2 days. The people making the strongest arguments are not those “on the right”, but disaffected people on the left whose children were harmed by these lockdowns in their blue states (New York, Washington, Oregon). Here are just some examples -
After these reactions came fast and furious, other op-eds were written in response to this idea of amnesty or forgiveness. The Wall Street Journal Opinion section came out with one just this morning (Now They Want a Pandemic ‘Amnesty’) that addressed one of the main issues that most people did not like about Oster’s article - the idea that we just did not know enough to make better decisions therefore, we should forgive ourselves.
In response to this argument, the editorial board writes -
… it was clear by summer 2020 that children were at extremely low risk for severe illness. They were also struggling with remote learning, as were their parents. All efforts should have been made to reopen schools, as Florida did in August 2020, and to keep them open.
But the teachers’ unions lobbied hard to keep them closed and succeeded in far too many places where they dominate local and state politics. Many big city school districts didn’t reopen until spring 2021. Chicago didn’t offer full in-person learning until last fall. The result in lost learning have been catastrophic.
“October Surprise” is the Nation’s Report Card
That “lost learning” has become an “October surprise”1 for Democrats who seem to be shocked by how poorly our education system has failed the children in this country.
On October 24th, the National Assessment of Educational Progress released the results for the “Nation’s Report Card” and it was so depressing. It showed the “biggest drop in math performance in 4th and 8th grades since the testing program began in 1990.” The title of an article written by Sarah D. Sparks for Education Weeks says it all - Two Decades of Progress, Nearly Gone: National Math, Reading Scores Hit Historic Lows.
Again, Twitter users raged against the machine when this report card came out. They voiced their disapproval at the lockdowns and their vindication for protesting them. The collective outrage around the country at this report card appeared to create momentum in the polls for Republicans. This issue is one of the main reasons why governors in blue states seem to be in trouble (along with crime being a major issue as well). Here is a list of the races where democrat governors might lose to the republicans -
Kansas - Laura Kelly (D) and incumbent vs. Derek Schmidt (R)
Maine - Janet Mills (D) and incumbent vs. Paul LePage (R)
Michigan - Gretchen Whitmer (D) and incumbent vs. Tudor Dixon (R)
Nevada - Stephen Sisolak (D) and incumbent vs. Joe Lombardo (R)
New Mexico - Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) and incumbent vs. Mark Ronchetti (R)
New York - Kathy Hochul (D) and incumbent vs. Lee Zeldin (R)
Oregon - Tina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R)
Wisconsin - Tony Evers (D) and incumbent vs. Tim Michels (R)
Halloween Surprise
It appears that Professor Oster witnessed this rage, from the Nation’s Report Card, and decided to write a more empathetic article devoid of data driven solutions. Maybe Oster thought people would be too busy getting dressed up for work parties or dressing their kids for school zoom calls to take notice of her article on Monday. Despite her best efforts of persuasion, Oster’s article reignited this debate once again. It really did not help when the president of one of the biggest teachers’ union (Randi Weingarten) replied to her article with her glowing approval for others to give herself amnesty.
Lots of rage tweeting on Halloween which was pretty scary. Needless to say, this has not been helping the Democrats in the polls.
Why is this a “sign of the times”?
Once the Republicans have control of the House (and I believe the Senate, as well), they control what is investigated. That is why Democrats spent the last 2 years investigating “Democracy” with the Capitol Hill riots. This is also why Randi Weingarten (and the American Federation of Teachers - AFT) believe they are next when it comes to Congressional hearings and investigations. The Republicans in Congress will want to know what has been done with the 190 billion tax payer dollars in covid relief funds.
This should not be a surprise because the House Republicans announced in September that they were launching an investigation over how the Department of Education spent the COVID relief funds. This preemptive strike was in anticipation that Republicans will win the House majority next week and they want to have investigations already in place when they are in charge of the committees in January.
This begs the question… what other investigations have begun that different interest groups are worried about?
I think the news articles in the coming days will hold that answer. Here are some of the topics that I expect to be read about -
ESG investing - how financial institutions are deciding to invest based off of “environmental, social, government” arbitrary scoring
Cashless Bail Reform - the argument by progressive DA’s around the country that crime is down and not a result of their “reform” policies
CDC/FDA power to shutdown - the argument that the CDC and FDA are vital to life, but do not need oversight or accountability
Biden will Not Go Gentle Into that Good Night
Dylan Thomas wrote a poem that I love. It is titled - “Do not go gentle into that good night”. To me, it encourages fighting to the end even though you know the end is coming. Here is part of the poem -
Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.
This “rage against the dying of the light” is what I have seen President Biden do so well throughout his whole career. Regardless of what one thinks about him as a politician, there is no denying his personal political accomplishments - US Senator, Vice President and President. You do not achieve this without some luck, of course, and the uncanny ability to fight to the bitter end.
Tonight, President Biden will make another attempt to, in his “old age”, “rage against the dying of the light” by addressing the nation on what he really wants this election to be about - “threats to democracy”. I do not blame him for doing all that he can to try and change the momentum right now.
However, I really do wish people would go quietly into that good night.
Sincerely,
Me
The term typically refers to some sort of planted political news story close to election day that is meant to drive voters to the polls for one party over the other. Since our elections are the first Tuesday in November, the “surprise” comes in October.
Loved all these points. I missed the Prof Oster debate. I appreciate how many defended her too by sharing her 2020 article about schools not being super spreaders. She didn’t get her way either, but still advocates for some grace. Your article gives hope to end of current inquiries and new focus by GOP!
Fascinating take!